Nov 30, 2008

Obama Takes Presidency Back to Pre-McKinley

It was President McKinley who invented the modern presidency by converting the executive office from a largely ceremonial institution into an active branch of the U.S. government. Primarily in foreign policy, McKinley shaped the presidency for the 20th century.

With his "visionary" approach to the presidency, Barack Obama apparently wants to take the president's hands off the grinds of daily politics. The question is whether he is envisioning a figure-head presidency or is trying to reinforce the teamwork trend that has been underway for some time already.

The teamwork presidencies of Bush-Cheney, Clinton-Gore and Reagan-Bush have been very active. The president has been directly involved do a large degree in the day-to-day issues of politics. Getting the vice president involved, and having strong, active secretaries at, e.g., the State Department has been necessary in an increasingly complex political context.

It appears unlikely that Obama is going to follow that trend. More likely, he is going to revert back to the pre-McKinley tradition and leave Congress more room to set the stage for daily politics, especially on the domestic scene. The problem with this model is that both the economy, the needed reforms in the big welfare systems and foreign policy all call for an active presidency.

Others in Obama's incoming administration see this. If Obama tries to take a figure-head role it is more than likely that strong individuals in his administration will set the tone on their own. This is especially likely in foreign policy with a secretary of state who ostensibly has presidential ambitions for 2012.

Whichever way Obama wants to go, he needs to clarify his presidential philosophy in much more detail, and do it soon, in order to avoid a policy vacuum as the Bush administration phases out.

Nov 20, 2008

Palin Bashing Is Lack of Focus on Real Problem

Those in the Republican party who are bashing Sarah Palin for the lost election not only fundamentally misunderstand her role in the campaign, but they also show a lack of insight into why McCain lost. The senator, despite his long service in Congress, is no issues guy. He cannot explain why he is for or against any specific reforms, especially in the ideologically charged areas like health care.

Sarah Palin is clearly ideological, and that appeals to conservatives and many Americans who are not particularly ideological but seek clarity in differences. With the sharp left turn that the country will take under Barack Obama and a heavy Democrat majority in Congress, Palin's ideological stance will become increasingly popular.

America needs free-market reforms in just about every area of public policy, and the need will grow with each year of the Obama administration. If the GOP fails to recognize that the party's future is bleak at best. The safest way for the party to avoid a future in the shadow of the Democrats is to show confidence and ideological fervor at the state level. With 50 different jurisdictions there is plenty of room for Republican-led states to set good limited-government examples, especially in areas that are a heavy burden on taxpayers: health care and education.

Republicans who push for free-market solutions in health care will be able to show that more freedom, not less, will expand health insurance coverage. Two simple steps can help: remove the state coverage mandates that force people to buy narrowly tailored insurance packages that they cannot afford and will not use; and give small businesses in the state the ability to pool together and buy insurance nationwide, again without having to pay for in-state coverage mandates.

A strong, concerted effort to bring school choice to all families, not just the Obamas and other wealthy parents, will also help strengthen the Republican credentials.

Nov 14, 2008

Russia, China Challenging Obama

Cuba has once again become a hot spot of international politics. Both Russia's and China's presidents are scheduled to visit there soon. Ostensibly their goals are to strengthen their respective nations' ties to the island, 90 miles from U.S. shores, which could include a military build-up. This would add to Russian ties already being strengthened to Venezuela.

A hypothetical scenario is a Russian naval base in Venezuela or Cuba, with a permanent presence of Russian navy within landing distance of mainland U.S..

If Russia's goals are increased military presence in the Western Hemisphere it is likely that the Chinese will want to play one-upmanship with the Russians for increased military presence in the region.

Should Russia strike a deal with Cuba or Venezuela to build a permanent naval base in either country it would be a tremendous challenge to the U.S., equivalent to the international crisis that Joe Biden mentioned during the election campaign. Obama's response, he said, would not be the one we would want, which in this scenario would mean a passive, accommodating policy that concedes part of the Caribbean to the Russian and/or Chinese military.

Nov 11, 2008

Obama's National Security Force

Congressman Broun's warnings about authoritarian tendencies in the coming Obama administration are not to be dismissed. Broun points to the fact that Obama has called for a "national security force", as well armed, trained and funded as the U.S. Army, Navy, Marines and Air Force. Not only would this effectively be the build-up of a parallel military in the United States, but it would also, ostensibly, require a doubling of military expenditures.

Alternatively, Obama has in mind a cut by 50 percent of Pentagon's budget. Either way, the talk of a national security force is reminiscent of what authoritarian regimes around the world have done to solidify and perpetuate their hold on power. In this view, Obama's remark comes across as reckless, especially since he alleges that this national security force would take some national security burdens off the military. But the United States already has a domestic national security force, namely the National Guard. Therefore, he must come clean on what he is referring to.

Obama has already, effectively, created a third party within the Democrat party. He has close ties to Acorn for voter registration/mobilization. A national security force created to his design and his desires would only add to the impression that Obama is trying to become a ruler, not a president. He must turn the tide on those impressions quickly, or else he risks hurling America in to political turmoil.

Nov 5, 2008

Republican Comeback a Grassroots Project

Republicans lost Washington because they blurred the differences between them and Democrats. If McCain had said no to the bank bailout he would likely have won. As it was now Obama captured the maverick status and McCain got stuck with a Washington insider chain around his ankle.

Obama is no maverick - he is a socialist in the European sense of the word and will govern as such. He has very far reaching plans for America but will be advised by Podesta and others to go easy, or else the Democrats risk another 1978 or 1994. They know that the only two times they have taken the White House from the Republicans in the last 40 years they have gone too far to the left, too fast. The American people have reacted resoundingly. Therefore, Obama will turn up the heat more slowly.

This will make a Republican comeback a bit more difficult, although there will be numerous opportunities for Obama to make mistakes and expose either his inexperience or his radicalism. But more importantly, Republicans need to re-connect with America's middle class. They have lost that connection, which president Reagan gave them.

The best way to re-connect with America is to do it at the state level. By showing that they can govern conservatively both as governors and as legislators, state Republicans can demonstrate their firm commitment to limited government in practice. This is something they have not been able to do, or interested in doing, over the past few years.

There are a number of state-level reforms that can drive a Republican re-connection effort. The overarching goal must be to restore state independence, cut taxes and liberate people of government regulations. But this must be done with the clear purpose to bring tangible improvements to people's lives.

Governors Palin and Jindal are two examples of a new generation of Republicans who can set healthy governing examples and bring the Republican party back into the conversation with the American people.

Nov 2, 2008

The Consequences of an Election Litigation Battle

If the popular vote tends toward Obama but the electoral college tilts in McCain's favor the Obama campaign is likely going to mount a massive legal battle to charge election fraud. The tactic will ostensibly be to surf on a perceived public wave of support to try to win by judicial fiat. This could tie down the transition process and delay the actual result even longer than was the case in 2000.

If it comes down to litigation the structure around Obama will likely try to create public unrest as an alleged show of support for Obama. This bullying tactic has been used in countries with politicians that Obama view favorably, such as Odinga in Kenya and Chavez in Venezuela. If Obama wins in the wake of his support structure employing such bullying tactics he will see it as a victory through bullying. That would not bode well for the future and would require a new generation of Republican leaders to stand up even more forcefully against an Obama administration.

Sarah Palin has already been criticized and abandoned by some traditional Republican leaders. Under the aforementioned scenario she would be one of the natural leaders of the GOP in opposition. If the old Republican leaders are not willing to back her up, it would mean a significant weakening of the GOP's ability to launch an active, forceful and successful containment strategy vs. Obama. She has very strong support among Republican grassroots, but without the organizationals and financial backing from old Republican leaders it will take time to build a containment strategy. Such loss of time is not something America can afford, especially if Obama would win by judicial fiat.

Oct 28, 2008

Obama's Third Party Plans

With polls and some other indicators showing an increased possibility that McCain-Palin will win this election, there is also an increased risk that, come Wendesday next week, Conservatives will sigh with relief and forget about Obama. That would be a grave mistake. Obama will have hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign cash that he has not spent, and will certainly continue to raise large amounts.

Obama's cash on hand will not be available for the Democrat party to tap in to. It will be Obama's own political war chest. He is going to use it to create his own party within the Democrat party. Knowing that every presidential candidate who loses an election runs a big risk of becoming history, Obama will strenuously fight to stay in the political spotlight. He will build a political base by supporting his allies for offices in local governments, state legislatures and even for Congress. Then he will run again in 2012, with an even stronger organization behind him.

The big question is how the Democrat party responds to this. They can discard him and reduce him to another Kerry, which would mean that they would try to re-direct the party in a more moderate, centrist direction. That would leave the left flank of the party wide open for Obama's "third party" structure within the DNC. That will cause rising tensions in the Democrat party, especially in the midterm elections in 201o.

They can also choose to stick with Obama. In that case the Obama "third party" structure will become the core of the Democrat party. That would permanently park the Democrat party way out to the left. Should that happen there will likely be a drainage of moderate Democrats in to the Republican party.

Either way, Obama will remain a strong, radical force on the left in American politics. He is a man who keeps grudges, which makes him even more dangerous as president, should he lose this election and win in 2012.

Oct 24, 2008

Biden's "Test" Talk Indicative of Obama's Authoritarian Style

When Joe Biden says Obama would not respond to an international crisis the way people would want him to, he is indicating that Obama will govern by his own playbook, regardless of America's interests or historical ties. Obama's personality reinforces this impression.

Biden's comment was not meant to appeal to supporters for their backing in the response to an expected crisis. On the contrary, Biden spoke to the American public, knowing his words would be made public very quickly. He knows how Obama will respond and he knows that Obama's hard core supporters will approve of his response. He also knows that the rest of the American people will disapprove of Obama's reaction.

An example is an Iranian attack on Israel. Here Obama can respond in two ways that would be disliked by the majority of Americans. He can choose to do nothing and instead plead for both parties to talk (the "Georgia" response) or he can choose to retaliate against Israel if Israel strikes Iran. The latter is an incredulous action to almost every American, but it is not inconceivable that an Obama administration would choose to punish Israel for either striking pre-emptively against Iran, or for responding to an attempted Iranian attack. Obama has long time associations who are strongly anti-Israel and appears to harbor the same feelings, as became evident during one of his debates with McCain. He also expressed very strong sympathy for the Palestinians this past summer.

Another example would be an attempt by China to seize Taiwan. In this case Obama would obviously respond by pulling back American naval forces from the region. There would be no attempt by a president Obama to secure Taiwan's independence.

Oct 20, 2008

Democrats Will Attack 22nd Amendment

With Obama in the White House it is very likely that the Democrats will attack the 22nd Amendment, which limits a president's terms to two. A recent New York Times article opens up this topic for public debate. The article is about the mayoral term limits in New York; since the New York Times is part of the Democrat party sphere it is reasonable to assume that this article probes the term limits issue on behalf of influential Democrat party leaders. Once the discussion is opened about the mayor's term limits it is legitimate to bring it up at higher levels.

Repealing an Amendment is very difficult. That is why this topic is being opened already now, so that the 22nd Amendment can be repealed in time for the 2016 election.

If Obama wins this election Republicans need to launch a defense strategy for America and fiercely resist every single one of Obama's efforts to bend or change the Constitution. It will have to be efforts that go well beyond what was used against Clinton. Obama has his own organization in place within the Democrat party, as well as outside of the party, and he is going to use it to force-feed America his policies.

Oct 18, 2008

If Obama Loses

With Obama and McCain in a statistical dead heat the chances have increased that McCain will actually win. If so, his administration and the Republicans will have to be prepared for an extremely tough few years ahead of them. The main reason is not the economic and other political challenges - they can be overcome by soundly implementing McCain's plan from the election campaign. The problem is instead the organized opposition that Obama will lead.

Republicans must realize that they are facing not another Carter or McGovern, but a Hugo Chavez. To an even greater extent than Bill Clinton, Obama puts his ideology above his country. The ideology is, to him, a vehicle to power, and he wants to be the man who implements radical socialism in America.

There should be no doubt that Obama is a radical socialist. He surrounds himself with people who share his views and have ties to Hugo Chavez. In fact, it is known in radical leftist circles that Obama harbors a secret admiration for Chavez, his rise to power and the methods Chavez used.

Herein lies a stark warning to the Republicans. Chavez did not march in to the Venezuelan presidential palace without facing tough challenges. He failed and tried again and eventually made it, in good part thanks to very ugly and shadowy political strategies.

In the event Obama loses, he will not go back to just being a senator from Illinois. He will copy Chavez' strategies to some degree, which means that he will organize his own permanent campaign groups. He will challenge and overcome any opposition within the Democrat party, or - if he trusts the strength of his organization enough - leave the party altogether. His organization will be one with community groups much like Acorn, but with a branch that is dedicated to non-traditional political activism.

This Obama's opposition corps will be used to solidify his position before the 2012 Democrat primaries begin.

In addition to his own opposition organization, Obama will launch a campaign to discredit the presidential election result that will surpass the Democrat campaign after the 2000 election.

Barack Obama has brought a new type of politics to America, not only ideologically, but also in terms of organization and campaign methods. If he loses in November his efforts at changing America will be slowed down. But the Republican party better prepare for a long battle with a political adversary whose sources of inspiration are not in America and its political culture, but in authoritarian leaders in countries far away.

Oct 16, 2008

Challenges for A Palin-Jindal Administration

The presidency is no longer a one-man job (and not even a one-woman job). The complexities of modern politics imply that the vice president should do more than just sit and wait "in case". Bush Sr was an active part of the Reagan administration; Gore was an active resource in, e.g., environmental policies under Clinton; Cheney has been very supportive of Bush Jr.

It is not likely that Joe Biden would be a particularly noticeable vice president should Obama win. The reason is simple: Obama is too narcissistic. However, a McCain administration will appoint Sarah Palin the energy czar and assign to her the duty of strengthening America's energy supply.

The advantage of this is that Palin will gain valuable experience, but it also solidifies a new active-VP tradition in the executive branch. That will come in handy when it is time for a Palin-Jindal administration in 2012. They fill face bigger challenges than any president since World War II.

1. Social Security can no longer stay under the political carpet. It is in dire need of reform, and it has to be a reform where we become far more individually responsible for our retirement than is the case today. While a majority of Americans still predominantly depend on private retirement, the balance is shifting steadily and the ever growing costs of Social Security will keep on eroding people's ability to shore up for their own retirement. A Palin-Jindal administration will have to launch a Social Security reform.

2. Federal education spending is one of the biggest driving forces behind an ever growing federal budget. It should not be the responsibility of the federal government; a Palin-Jindal administration must reverse this trend and return educational responsibility to the states.

3. The federal tax code must undergo comprehensive reform. It is costly, complex and inefficient. The international trend is toward more efficient codes and lower taxes. The United States must reclaim its international leadership it achieved under Reagan. A flat federal income tax and a competitively low corporate tax rate make up two central ingredients in a comprehensive tax reform.

Both Palin and Jindal are reform-minded governors. Jindal has a passion for government accountability and Palin has taken on political corruption like few other governors. If Palin can prove herself as vice president with comprehensive energy reform she will be in a very good starting point for reforms in the aforementioned areas.

Oct 13, 2008

Agenda for Vice President Sarah Palin

When opinion polls are adjusted for the Democrat-favoring slant in the sample of voters, McCain is in a dead heat with Obama. This means that his chances of winning are remarkably good, given the broader political circumstances. There is at least a 50-50 chance that he will win.

If McCain becomes the next president, he must give his vice president a very active role. He wants to appoint her the energy czar of his administration. This is a good opportunity for her to show that she is capable and ready to be president after him.

But improving the nation's energy infrastructure is only the first of Vice President Palin's duties. As representative of a new generation of Republican leaders, Palin will have to show that she can defend core conservative values on the national political scene. Given McCain's past as an aisle crosser there is a considerable risk that he will compromise his recently reinforced conservative credentials as president. When that happens, vice president Palin must be ready to stand up to him and mark her independence.

This is a delicate matter for the vice president, but in Palin's case it is necessary for the future of conservatism in American politics. A centrist McCain presidency will do significant damage to conservatism, as conservatives rallied to McCain after his choice of Palin as his running mate. Knowing his own conservative credentials are a bit weak, McCain placed the responsibility for conservatism on her shoulders. If she becomes a loyal vice president it will be virtually impossible to build a strong, credible conservative leadership in the Republican party.

If on the other hand vice president Palin taps president McCain on the shoulder once in a while, and outspokenly reminds him of what conservatism really means, she will gain more conservative street cred and be a forceful conservative candidate in 2012. This activist role may be unprecedented for a vice president, and McCain may not be comfortable with it. But contrary to what conventional wisdom would tell us, vice president Palin does not answer to president McCain. She answers to the conservative voters whom she rallied and who will make the difference between defeat and victory for McCain in November.

Oct 12, 2008

A Conservative Plan B

If Obama wins the presidential election it will be four hard years for America. The four years under Carter will not compare. Obama is determined to make deep, very profound changes to the education system, health care, the tax system and just about everything in between.

His radical allies will push him even farther and Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid will make sure Congress walks in line with him. A good comparison to illustrate what an Obama administration will bring is the 1930s. The Roosevelt administration and a solid Democrat majority in Congress passed sweeping economic planning legislation that perpetuated and even deepened the serious economic problems that followed the 1929 stock market crash.

Should Obama win it will be incumbent upon our young Republican leaders to play a very active role in opposing him and a Pelosi-Reid led Congress. They will have to do whatever they can to set counter-examples, especially in their own states. A large part of the federal government's powers today run through programs that are co-sponsored by states. Those programs will likely grow dramatically under an Obama administration. One way to resist the massive expansion of government under Obama will be to cut states loose of those programs. A state that refuses federal funds is also liberated of the regulations that come with those funds.

If the federal government tries to run those programs on its own it will have to face court challenges under the General Welfare Clause and the Commerce Clause, as well as the Tenth Amendment.

But the new Republican leadership will also have to prepare for the fact that an Obama administration will be run Chicago thug-style. This means that anyone opposing them will face tougher challenges than anyone who tried to oppose the Clintons in the '90s. A good proxy for how Obama will govern is Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. A new Republican leadership must prepare to stand up to such extra-ordinary forms of presidential powers, from abuse of the IRS to local Obama Militia gangs creating public unrest in cities and states that are predominantly negative toward Obama.

Oct 9, 2008

Know the Enemy

America is facing a domestic, radical left of a kind it has never faced before. That is why we need a new, young conservative generation to lead the Republican party. The older generation may be conservative at heart, but they do not have the fortitude to battle the radicalism now forcing its way in to the core of America's political institutions.

The Bush-McCain generation of Republicans learned politics in an era when established politicians were ultimately humble people. Admitting a mistake was the honorable thing to do. It was respected by the other side. Barack Obama represents an entirely different breed of a politician. To him, admitting a mistake is a sign of weakness. By the same token, he does not respect his opponent's weaknesses. He exploits them for a higher goal - his ideology.

Young conservatives are as respectful of their opponents as the older generation, but at the same time they do not pull any punches. 9/11 was a much more formative experience to them than it was to the older generation. It taught them that freedom has enemies who see humility as a sign of weakness and will exploit that weakness rather than respect it.

They can recognize the same character traits in an American politician who does not respect humility. Barack Obama is the first example, but not the last, of this new type of dangerous radical. Being able to see him and his future copycats for who they are will help young conservatives fight them in the political arena.

Barack Obama is no George McGovern. He is an American version of Hugo Chavez. He represents a threat to America that has not been seen domestically in modern times. Only young, savvy conservatives like Sarah Palin can stop him and his radical movement from doing irreparable damage to America.

Oct 8, 2008

Reclaiming Conservatism

A new generation of Republican leaders will face a significant challenge. They will have to devise an offensive strategy against a radical left whose precedence America has not seen at home. A radical left that is funded by Soros, inspired by Hugo Chavez and employed by Obama.

They will also have to reclaim one of the most cherished and misused terms in politics: Conservatism.

The future of American conservatism is not in the hands of pundits in Washington. It is entirely in the hands of young politicians, especially those who are active in our state legislatures and gubernatorial offices. It is with their deeds, not pundit words, that American conservatism will be rebuilt.

Conservative state politicians face predominantly three challenges today. First, they must fight for government transparency. Too much government spending is taking place behind closed doors and in closed books. This invites recklessness, waste and even corruption. To avoid public insight into their finances, many state and local government agencies put up ridiculous FOIA barriers and charge incredulously for people to see what they are actually doing with taxpayer money.

More transparency in government spending is a pillar of conservatism - regardless of whether it is Democrats or Republicans who are wasting our money.

Secondly, conservative state politicians must show that they are serious about shrinking government. There are two big areas to focus on: Medicaid and public education. Many self-proclaimed conservatives sign on to increased Medicaid coverage and more money to inefficient public schools for no other reasons than political narcissism. That has got to change.

The new generation of conservatives must expand free-market health care down to low income families, who need the benefits of the benefits of the free market the most. They must also have the fortitude to take on teachers' unions and push for free school choice.

It is very important that with Medicaid and school choice reforms come tax cuts for middle class Americans.

Thirdly, the new generation of conservatives must put an end to corporate welfare in all its forms, from subsidies and special tax breaks to big businees bailouts. Instead, they should minimize taxation and regulation and trust businesses to grow and thrive in a free economy.

Tax breaks, welfare checks and bailouts benefit big corporations but do nothing but raise the tax and red tape burden on small businesses.

With these points in mind, a new generation of conservatives can set the tone in American politics for decades to come.

Oct 7, 2008

The Long Horizon in American Politics

With Barack Obama, the radical left has come farther in America than ever before. Should he become president the country will take a bigger leap to the left than even under FDR. Should he lose the leftist forces he has rallied will continue their unrelenting battle for his very radical ideas. They combine the deeply rooted ideological convictions of European socialists - predominantly Scandinavian - with the street-smart savviness of Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.

This threat to American freedom will not go away even if Obama loses. He represents both a generational shift and an ideological turn in the Democrat party.

Republicans must realize the very grave danger embedded in this radical leftism. They have two things on their agenda for the next four years, regardless of whether John McCain becomes president.

1. Recognize the extraordinary nature of the Obama left. Unlike traditional American political movements, the Obama left does not shy away from very uncommon political methods. Inspired by the Latin American left they will use any means necessary to advance their agenda. Americans in general are not used to those methods and will therefore not be aware of them as they are being subjected to them. The Republicans must study those methods and learn to counter them as well as reply in kind.
2. Establish a new generation of leaders. Governors Palin and Jindal are good examples of that new generation and what it brings to the table. The old leadership in the GOP must recognize the need for a generational shift and support and encourage it. The old generation's political interests must stand back for the future of the values that the Republican party stands for.

The Obama left constitutes a bigger threat to America's future than any other political movement since Reconstruction. Even the Communists who infiltrated the Democrat party during the FDR years did not build its political influence as thoroughly as the Obama left has. It can be defeated. It must be defeated. It will be defeated. But it will take time, determination, dedication and very hard work on behalf of America's conservatives and the Republican party.

Oct 2, 2008

A New Chapter

Welcome to the Palin-Jindal 2012 blog - the frontline for a new Republican generation.

Governors Jindal and Palin represent a new kind of young, Washington-outsider Republican. They grew up in president Reagan's America, they are proud no-nonsense conservatives and they are not afraid of the liberal media-political complex.

Both Jindal and Palin come from a generation that is inherently skeptical of government. They know that such skepticism is well founded and that good government means restraint, accountability and transparency; not earmarks, cronyism and corruption.

They would make a great team in the White House.
...is a private, independent blog. It is not sponsored or in any other way supported by either Governor Jindal or Governor Palin.